Jun 16 2006
Blogburst: The Zarqawi documents reveal the truth of the insurgency
Every Thursday I am part of the Stop the ACLU Blogburst (see the end of this blog for details).
This week, I want to send this piece out instead of one of Jay or Gribbet's because I feel the message and information in this letter is crucial to a clear understanding of the war we are fighting.
When we knocked on the door of Zarqawi's house with two 500 pounders we got more then just his unconditional surrender.
We got a treasure trove of information. Since that day, hundreds of raids have been made and the terrorist lost several hundred killed or detained. And more and more information surfaced with each subsequent raid. Some call it the turning point of the war. I am unconvinced, but every war has major events that shape and define it when its historical record is examined, and it is clear this is one of those.
Of all the information gathered, nothing was more revealing then this document, reportedly found in the safe house Zarqawi was found in.
The fact is this document, which I will post in its entirety, is probably the most important direct evidence we have of the mood and the moral of the insurgents.
And it should be food for thought for everyone. The liberal naysayers who call the war an unwinnable quagmire might take notice to the letters grim acknowledgment of their declining position.
They might wish to note that while they are trying to get us to pull out, to cut and run, the Al Qaeda terrorists are openly admitting our perseverance is a leading factor leading to their declining optimism.
But both they and the right wing war supporters might also want to note that the enemy we face is not limited to a bunch of screaming fanatics. The letter is a cold and calculating assessment with some very cunning suggestions to divide our attention and weaken us. Before we plunge into a war in Iran, or anyone else, we should note that the Al Qaeda terrorists want us to, and they are actively scheming to manipulate us into it. They clearly have a more solid tactical understanding then many people realize.
The winning strategy is being implemented already, right now, every day: Stay, and finish the course. Persevere and win the prize of a free Iraq.
In this race, there is no prize for second place.
Read more details about the letter below here.
Text of al-Zarqawi Safe-House Document
(all emphasis added)
Text of a document discovered in terror leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's hideout. The document was provided in English by Iraqi National Security Adviser Mouwafak al-Rubaie:The situation and conditions of the resistance in Iraq have reached a point that requires a review of the events and of the work being done inside Iraq. Such a study is needed in order to show the best means to accomplish the required goals, especially that the forces of the National Guard have succeeded in forming an enormous shield protecting the American forces and have reduced substantially the losses that were solely suffered by the American forces. This is in addition to the role, played by the Shi'a (the leadership and masses) by supporting the occupation, working to defeat the resistance and by informing on its elements.
As an overall picture, time has been an element in affecting negatively the forces of the occupying countries, due to the losses they sustain economically in human lives, which are increasing with time. However, here in Iraq, time is now beginning to be of service to the American forces and harmful to the resistance for the following reasons:
By allowing the American forces to form the forces of the National Guard, to reinforce them and enable them to undertake military operations against the resistance. By undertaking massive arrest operations, invading regions that have an impact on the resistance, and hence causing the resistance to lose many of its elements. By undertaking a media campaign against the resistance resulting in weakening its influence inside the country and presenting its work as harmful to the population rather than being beneficial to the population. By tightening the resistance's financial outlets, restricting its moral options and by confiscating its ammunition and weapons. By creating a big division among the ranks of the resistance and jeopardizing its attack operations, it has weakened its influence and internal support of its elements, thus resulting in a decline of the resistance's assaults. By allowing an increase in the number of countries and elements supporting the occupation or at least allowing to become neutral in their stand toward us in contrast to their previous stand or refusal of the occupation. By taking advantage of the resistance's mistakes and magnifying them in order to misinform.Based on the above points, it became necessary that these matters should be treated one by one:
To improve the image of the resistance in society, increase the number of supporters who are refusing occupation and show the clash of interest between society and the occupation and its collaborators. To use the media for spreading an effective and creative image of the resistance. To assist some of the people of the resistance to infiltrate the ranks of the National Guard in order to spy on them for the purpose of weakening the ranks of the National Guard when necessary, and to be able to use their modern weapons. To reorganize for recruiting new elements for the resistance. To establish centers and factories to produce and manufacture and improve on weapons and to produce new ones. To unify the ranks of the resistance, to prevent controversies and prejudice and to adhere to piety and follow the leadership. To create division and strife between American and other countries and among the elements disagreeing with it. To avoid mistakes that will blemish the image of the resistance and show it as the enemy of the nation.In general and despite the current bleak situation, we think that the best suggestions in order to get out of this crisis is to entangle the American forces into another war against another country or with another of our enemy force, that is to try and inflame the situation between American and Iraq or between America and the Shi'a in general.
Specifically the Sistani Shi'a, since most of the support that the Americans are getting is from the Sistani Shi'a, then, there is a possibility to instill differences between them and to weaken the support line between them; in addition to the losses we can inflict on both parties. Consequently, to embroil America in another war against another enemy is the answer that we find to be the most appropriate, and to have a war through a delegate has the following benefits:
To occupy the Americans by another front will allow the resistance freedom of movement and alleviate the pressure imposed on it. To dissolve the cohesion between the Americans and the Shi'a will weaken and close this front. To have a loss of trust between the Americans and the Shi'a will cause the Americans to lose many of their spies. To involve both parties, the Americans and the Shi'a, in a war that will result in both parties being losers. Thus, the Americans will be forced to ask the Sunni for help. To take advantage of some of the Shia elements that will allow the resistance to move among them. To weaken the media's side which is presenting a tarnished image of the resistance, mainly conveyed by the Shi'a. To enlarge the geographical area of the resistance movement. To provide popular support and cooperation by the people.The resistance fighters have learned from the result and the great benefits they reaped, when a struggle ensued between the Americans and the Army of Al-Mahdi. However, we have to notice that this trouble or this delegated war that must be ignited can be accomplished through:
A war between the Shi'a and the Americans. A war between the Shi'a and the secular population (such as Ayad 'Alawi and al-Jalabi.) A war between the Shi'a and the Kurds. A war between Ahmad al-Halabi and his people and Ayad 'Alawi and his people. A war between the group of al-Hakim and the group of al-Sadr. A war between the Shi'a of Iraq and the Sunni of the Arab countries in the gulf. A war between the Americans and Iraq.We have noticed that the best of these wars to be ignited is the one between the Americans and Iran, because it will have many benefits in favor of the Sunni and the resistance, such as:
Freeing the Sunni people in Iraq, who are (30 percent) of the population and under the Shi'a Rule. Drowning the Americans in another war that will engage many of their forces. The possibility of acquiring new weapons from the Iranian side, either after the fall of Iran or during the battles. To entice Iran towards helping the resistance because of its need for its help. Weakening the Shi'a supply line.The question remains, how to draw the Americans into fighting a war against Iran? It is not known whether American is serious in its animosity towards Iraq, because of the big support Iran is offering to America in its war in Afghanistan and in Iraq. Hence, it is necessary first to exaggerate the Iranian danger and to convince America and the west in general, of the real danger coming from Iran, and this would be done by the following:
attribute them to a Shi'a Iranian side.
By disseminating threatening messages against American interests and the American people and attribute them to a Shi'a Iranian side. By executing operations of kidnapping hostages and implicating the Shi'a Iranian side. By advertising that Iran has chemical and nuclear weapons and is threatening the west with these weapons. By executing exploding operations in the west and accusing Iran by planting Iranian Shi'a fingerprints and evidence. By declaring the existence of a relationship between Iran and terrorist groups (as termed by the Americans). By disseminating bogus messages about confessions showing that Iran is in possession of weapons of mass destruction or that there are attempts by the Iranian intelligence to undertake terrorist operations in America and the west and against western interests. By executing operations of kidnapping hostages and implicating the Shi'a Iranian side. By advertising that Iran has chemical and nuclear weapons and is threatening the west with these weapons. By executing exploding operations in the west and accusing Iran by planting Iranian Shi'a fingerprints and evidence. By declaring the existence of a relationship between Iran and terrorist groups (as termed by the Americans). By disseminating bogus messages about confessions showing that Iran is in possession of weapons of mass destruction or that there are attempts by the Iranian intelligence to undertake terrorist operations in America and the west and against western interests.Let us hope for success and for God's help.
Let's hope not.
One good step: The Senate killed Kerry's idiotic amendment to leave Iraq by December. John? Hello? READ THE LETTER!!!!
He and the other 5 who voted for this stupid premature timetable (Senators Kennedy, Harkin, Feingold, Boxer and Byrd) need to get their brains flushed. And take Rep Murtha with you, for crying out loud.
Oh, the Vice Chair for the DNC, Susan Turnbull slipped...I mean misspoke tonight on the Bryan Suits Show (KVI 570am), and said Zarqawi was murdered by the Air Force.
Others: Captain Ed
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2 Responses to “Blogburst: The Zarqawi documents reveal the truth of the insurgency”
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So many possibilities…
First, I note today that the Vice Liar-in-Chief claimed again the war in Iraq is the reason why America hasn’t been attacked again… He didn’t have an answer to the logical question of why this worked for us but not the Brits… Never mind the international connection between these cells is weak at best. We’ll accept Cheney’s bloviation at face value. Question: If Cheney is right, and if Al-Qaeda decides Iraq is no longer a good bet and withdraw, where will they move their front???
Iraq… While in no sense wishing to "spin" events, I can’t share the optimism expressed by "Persevere and win the prize of a free Iraq." Read the damn letter again. Al-Qaeda is on nobody’s side except their own. They work with the Sunni out of convenience, but the Shia are obviously considered to be an enemy. Going back to earlier reports, there is good evidence Iran is already supplying newer, more effective weapons to … whoever… As this letter notes, attacks against Americans have become more effective - because of these weapons - but less frequent because the Americans have withdrawn in most of Iraq to garrison positions behind the new Iraqi forces. Now, anyone who has studied the arts of war realizes that isn’t a good development for our side. It’s a lot like what happened in Vietnam: Static troops only coming out for spectacular, well-publicized assaults. It didn’t work then…
"Persevere and win the prize of a free Iraq." We can’t win this, and for the same simple reasons that have applied all along: First, it isn’t our country to win; second, the country in question really isn’t…
We don’t hear a lot about the Kurds lately. That’s partly, I think, because the news from the north is always good, and we know the value of good news to the media… But that good news isn’t terribly "good" for the neocons that started this ball rolling either, because it highlights the truth about Iraq’s viability. The Kurds have set up their own nation for all practical purposes, dispossessed thousands of non-Kurdish Shia and the Sunnis from their territory, and pretty much are up and running… Of course, this is the worst possible news for our fickle ally to the northwest, Turkey - the "ally" that wouldn’t let us use their bases or overfly their space in the war… A Kurdish state is about as palatable to them as Palestine is to the Israelis… Last month they started moving a quarter million troops to the border to counter their own insurgent problems, which they blame on the Iraqi Kurds.
Will this become a new war? Whose side are we on in that one?
Meanwhile, whether it serves the purposes of Al-Qaeda or not, Iran is definitely playing a bigger role in Iraq. The weapons, the likely interference in the last election, and a hundred smaller pieces of evidence are demonstrative. War with Iran? We’re already at war with Iran. Reasonably credible sources suggest we already have forward observers there. While the politicians bloviate, the army readies for this likely inevitable conflict.
Have events left us with the ultimate catch-22?
I doubt any serious watcher will dispute that if we magically vanished tomorrow Iran would roll Iraq overnight. They have the manpower, the will, and a huge base of support in Iraq. This is one of the great downsides of eliminating Saddam. The Baathists considered Iran to be a threat; many of the groups in Iraq that the Baathists subjugated considered - still consider - Iran to be a lesser evil. Iraq’s new security forces can barely hold their own against thugs. I think we know what would happen if they had to take on the Iranians…
So what do we do? Keeping in mind I thought this whole war was a five-star stupidity, I nevertheless think that is flat out of the question to withdraw until we have an accommodation with Iran.
So what do we do? A divided Iraq - the logical outcome of the status quo - will become a dismembered Iraq without our support unless we can hold off the Iranians and possibly [eventually] the Turks. The Turks price is stopping their own internal Kurdish movement. What is Iran’s price?
The bomb? The Israelis won’t like that much…
So we’re screwed. It will be many years, if ever, before Iraq will be able to hold its own against aggressive neighbors. We can probably buy off the Turks, but the price for Iran’s cooperation is too high in the view of most. Invasion will create a whole new set of problems and will vastly increase the strain on our economy and army. We’ll need a draft, almost certainly. We will re-invigorate the insurgents, by their own estimation. Then, after we "win"… We’ll be occupying another hostile nation… But if we don’t, we’re stuck. The road home from Baghdad goes through Tehran, unless we give up on stopping their nuclear program. If we do that, the Israelis will send in the bombs, lighting the fuse to a whole new regional conflict.
And no matter how long we wait, the Iranians will still be there, right over the border, ready to move. If they get the southern Iraqi oil fields, they will have what Saddam sought when he invaded Kuwait: Enough oil production capacity to swing the markets, marginalize the Saudis, and generally become the tail wagging the dog…
And last, what about the Saudis? We wouldn’t be in this fix in the first place - and the two towers would likely still be standing - if we hadn’t spent the last 30+ years propping them up.
Still optimistic? If so, pass that stuff over… I need a big hit…
OTA Round-Up and Open Post: al-Zarqawi Edition…
Let’s take a look at what various OTA-ers had to say this week about the deceased terrorist’s lack of foresight in not investing a little scratch in a document shredder……