Nov 09 2006

Election musing

Published by Karl at 3:42 am under Democrats, Lieberman, Military, republicans

Let’s be honest, there are a million articles about how the democrats won and what it means, and I could take the next 2 hours and link them all in a massive round up.

And for what?  I doubt it would change anyone’s mind.

So here are a few of my scattered thoughts, linked to no where and honest.

Rumsfeld:

Ok so he resigned.  I don;t think this was a reactionary move, I think this was calculated.  Rumor says Gates was tapped over the weekend, which means they wanted the timing of this.

So the question is why?  A few bloggers suggests that timing acts to let Bush capture the issue quickly.  We know that the Dems are screaming for his head, and by doing so before the new congress goes into session Bush can take advantage fo this several ways:

  • He captured the initiative and looks responsive.
  • The Dems lose a talking point.
  • He can control the replacement easier.

It makes sense.  And yes, I always look for a hidden agenda and hidden motive when dealing with politicians.  I am usually right.

The Democrat victories:

As I have said already, they did a masterful job this cycle and it paid off.  They played on the war, laid out the anti Bush card often and managed to avoid having to make a stand on most of the issues. 

But the even though they have the House and Senate now (barring a recount upset) they really will not get much of their own way.  YOu see the democrats were also master of obstruction these past 12 years.  I don’t think the republicans will easily forget that, and will act in some ways themselves.  Additionally, the Senate depends on 2 Independents for their control, and they could switch at any time.  IF even one does, the control is split and Cheney becomes the tie breaker.

And one of those independents is Joe Lieberman, who is aligned democratically despite the fresh knife wounds in his back.  His party abandoned him for being too close to Bush, and he has not changed.  He is presently the most powerful man in Washington DC, and be assured the republicans will court him like crazy

The Republicans:

Time to wake up.  You won in 94 for emphasizing your values and commitment, and then along the way too many of you lost that.  The party of ethics became the target of ethics complaints, and even though only a handful are directly implicated, guilt by association is very powerful.

To win back their control in 2 years, they need to regroup and regain the loyalty of the moderates and conservatives.

The real winners?  First, the moderates.

Moderate conservatives.  The Democratic party has for years been shifting left, with Pelosi being one of the worst.  But this election was a victory by means of selected targeting of moderate districts with conservative democrat moderates.  It worked, but as I said previously they are now a force to be reckoned with.  When Arnold was first elected I hailed his election as a sign of the times, a moderate conservatives, with liberals ties who could be that middle ground we always hear about.

Now in the house we have that potential brewing.  Pelosi may claim to be ready to reach across the aisle, but the reality is that her base is divided between the leftists and the moderates, and the moderates have the momentum now.

It would be ironic if the moderates reached across to other moderates and seized the initiative to actually work together outside of partisan bickering.

The other winner?  The Bloggers.

Yep, us.  When the last democratic controlled congress was in office, all you really had was a few tv pundits like Rush (I loved his TV show) and some columnists.  Now there are a few hundred thousand bloggers who are energized, connected and focused.  On what?  On you.  The right wing discovered how the modern investigative techniques can be hard to hide from, but the left has also had a taste of the blogosphere which is also a force to be considered.

And the bloggers will not go quietly.  For good or bad, they will be watching every move and every step of the new direction government.

My advice to the democrats is to quickly make some reasonable effective changes.

The losers?  First loser is ethics:

As we now have legalized and constitutionally protected human cloning and ESCR, we will be facing some serious moral questions, and this time Michael J Fox will not be enough to hide behind.

We also saw a campaign that was very sneaky and underhanded in so many ways I cannot recount them here.  I saw race baiting, racism, sexism, outright lies, and all manner of ethical problems in the ads.  This will also not be forgotten.  The population is fairly irritated with both parties over this.

What we saw little of was passionate speaking about the issues and qualifications.  Sad.

Border security loses, and illegal immigration wins, for I do not think the new congress will act on the problem 2/3 of Americans believe is serious.

The big loser though?  The netroots Soros/Kos driven leftists groups.  They will find they have little voice in the new party by means of all the moderates.

And after all the gloating about winning the nomination for Lamont against Lieberman, Lieberman’s victory as an independent is a horrible let down and slap in their face.

Boo Hoo.

There is one final point to be considered.  The troops.  Perlosi and Reid had best step gently.  The military is still stinging from the Kerry debacle.  And the lives of our troops are now in the Democrats hands.

I was asked to join the US Central Command mailing list this week, and I am joining, happily, because supporting the troops has always been one of my number one priorities.

And it always will.  That will continue to be one of my highest priorities.

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